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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.