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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater change with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.